iFOREX cuts its full-year earnings outlook after coordinated US-Japan yen intervention wipes out most of its July trading income.
iFOREX cuts its full-year earnings outlook after coordinated US-Japan yen intervention wipes out most of its July trading income.
iFOREX slashes its FY2026 EBITDA outlook after yen intervention drives July trading income down 77% year-on-year.
Key Points:
A dramatic swing in the Japanese yen caught iFOREX off guard in late July, forcing the company to revise its full-year earnings expectations sharply downward on Wednesday. The broker now targets FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $0.5 million to $2.5 million, a steep reduction driven by a single month in which trading income fell to approximately $720,000 from roughly $3.1 million a year earlier.
The company had not published a numerical full-year range in its July 27 update, stating at the time that underlying first-half progress remained in line with board expectations despite a stronger Israeli shekel raising the U.S. dollar value of its cost base. Using the $2.4 million adjusted EBITDA estimate for the first half, the new range implies second-half adjusted EBITDA of between a $1.9 million loss and a $0.1 million profit.
CEO Itai Sadeh said the company was disappointed to issue the update so soon after its H1 report.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the U.S. Department of the Treasury acted together on July 30 and 31, buying yen after the currency slid to a 40-year low against the dollar. The coordinated move triggered a sharp yen appreciation that moved directly against iFOREX’s net client exposure, generating the bulk of the income shortfall the company reported for the month.
The company also faces a structural translation effect in its Japanese business. Clients fund their accounts in yen, meaning a weaker currency reduces the U.S. dollar value of income those accounts generate regardless of trading activity levels. July trading income fell to approximately $720,000 from roughly $3.1 million a year earlier, a decline of 76.8%. August started slowly as well, with iFOREX reporting that low market volatility kept trading income below expectations through the date of the update.
Several client metrics continued to move in a positive direction during July despite the income shock. New customers rose 40% from a year earlier, and total deposits climbed 8% year-on-year. The figures extend a pattern established in the first half, when new client onboarding rose 19% and active clients increased 8% year-on-year. However, average revenue per user fell 9% over the same period, pointing to a widening gap between customer volume and income generation.
The July update makes clear that iFOREX’s problem centers on its net client exposure rather than a shortfall in customer activity. That distinction separates it from listed peers whose recent results reflected broader income gains during periods of elevated market volatility.
Plus500 reported a 12% year-on-year rise in H1 2026 revenue to $462.9 million in July, though EBITDA grew only 1% as customer acquisition spending increased and new customer sign-ups fell 12% year-on-year in the second quarter. CMC Markets posted a 15% year-on-year increase in FY2026 net operating income in June, with high volatility during its second half supporting the result.
iFOREX reported a $3.2 million net loss for FY2025, with adjusted EBITDA falling 55.7% year-on-year to $4.3 million as IPO and share-based payment costs weighed on the statutory result. The company has traded on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market since completing its IPO in February.
Net cash stood at approximately $10 million as of August 17, down from roughly $12 million at June 30. Around $4 million of that balance remains ringfenced for regulatory purposes. The company noted that monthly outcomes can be positive or negative depending on changes in client trading activity and its net exposure position. Interim results are due on September 24.
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