Plus500 Surpasses Q1 Forecasts Amid Rising Broker Competition

Plus500 surpasses Q1 forecasts with record customer income and strong EBITDA as UK brokers ride the 2026 volatility wave.

Key Points:

• Plus500 posted Q1 2026 revenue of $242.1 million, up 18% year-on-year, and customer income of $270.6 million, the highest since the 2021 pandemic boom, as the board confirmed full-year results will exceed market consensus.
• UK-listed retail brokers including IG Group, CMC Markets, and XTB all reported strong Q1 performances driven by elevated market volatility, though Plus500 distinguishes itself through growing exposure to US futures and prediction markets.

Plus500 (LSE: PLUS) used its annual general meeting in London on Tuesday to reaffirm the upgraded full-year guidance it issued two weeks earlier, telling shareholders that first-quarter performance ran ahead of market expectations and that the board remains confident in the outlook for the remainder of 2026.

The statement reinforces the substance of the Q1 trading update Plus500 released on April 20, when the company first signalled to investors that it expected revenue and EBITDA to come in above consensus. The Israeli-founded broker entered FY 2026 with momentum across both its OTC and non-OTC businesses, driven by growth in B2B futures and its expanding prediction markets ecosystem.

Plus500 Surpasses Q1 Forecasts Amid Rising Broker Competition

The figures behind Tuesday’s commentary were already public. Revenue climbed 18% year-on-year to $242.1 million in Q1, marking a 24% jump from the fourth quarter of 2025. EBITDA reached $95.7 million on a 40% margin. Meanwhile, customer income, which Plus500 describes as a leading indicator of platform activity, hit $270.6 million, the highest quarterly reading since the pandemic-era boom of 2021. New customers rose 48% year-on-year to 39,867, and active customers grew 21% to 157,703.

This trajectory carries particular weight given Plus500’s track record of exceeding its own projections. The company delivered $792.4 million in revenue and $348.1 million in EBITDA for FY 2025, comfortably ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates of $757.7 million and $345.8 million. The board now expects FY 2026 to surpass the current consensus of $779.3 million in revenue and $360.4 million in EBITDA.

UK Peers Share the Same Tailwind

However, what tempers Plus500’s outperformance narrative is that virtually every UK-listed retail broker is telling a similar story. Heightened volatility, stemming from gold’s January correction, Brent crude surging past $115 on Middle East tensions, and macro repricing on interest rate paths, lifted activity across the sector.

IG Group reported Q1 calendar 2026 revenue of approximately £300 million, up around 7% year-on-year, on top of CY 2025 results showing total revenue of £1.12 billion and net trading revenue of £1.0 billion. CEO Breon Corcoran told investors the group now expects organic revenue growth at the top end of its mid-to-high single-digit guidance range for 2026. IG is also conducting a strategic review that may include a New York relisting.

CMC Markets, which operates on a March fiscal year, pulled its FY 2026 guidance forward as early as November, setting it roughly 10% above the £353.9 million consensus. The London-listed broker reported H1 2026 net operating income of £186.2 million and highlighted a white-label agreement with Westpac, which it expects will expand its Australian customer base by 40% over a 12-month integration period.

Polish broker XTB, which also operates in the UK retail market, delivered the most striking Q1 among European-listed peers. Operating revenue jumped 88.5% year-on-year to PLN 1.09 billion, approximately $301 million while net profit surged 176% to PLN 535 million as the broker added 370,000 new clients in three months. CEO Omar Arnaout told investors the result validated the company’s aggressive marketing strategy through 2025, a year in which net profit had fallen 25% even as client numbers expanded.

Prediction Markets Set Plus500 Apart

Where Plus500 genuinely diverges from its peers is in the non-OTC segment. Its US arm, built on the 2021 acquisition of Cunningham Commodities, generated approximately $35 million in Q1 revenue, up 45% year-on-year, and now accounts for roughly 15% of group turnover.

In February, Plus500 launched a B2C prediction markets product under the Plus500 Futures brand, distributing event contracts issued by Kalshi. The broker also acts as a clearing partner for the CME Group and FanDuel event-contracts venture that went live in late 2025, positioning it on both sides of the regulatory divide currently shaping the US prediction markets industry. A next-generation version with a broader product range is expected in Q2.

“Customer income reached a five-year record high in Q1 2026, driven by the continued execution of our strategic shift toward higher-value customers,” CEO David Zruia said in last month’s update. The board did not specify on Tuesday exactly how far above consensus the full-year result would land.

Shares Reflect Strong but Complicated Momentum

Plus500 shares closed Friday at 4,530 pence in London, valuing the broker at approximately £3.16 billion. The stock has risen around 72% over the past year. Nevertheless, it still trades below the February peak it reached before three senior executives, including CEO Zruia and CFO Elad Even-Chen, sold a combined £67.1 million in shares just days after the company launched a $100 million buyback programme.

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